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IPOs explained: what if you had bought at the IPO?

SpaceX has been listed since June 2026, and many people wonder whether to get in early on new stocks. Here is how an IPO works, how to subscribe from Germany, and what early buyers of well-known stocks actually experienced.

Status: New listing: SpaceX has traded on Nasdaq since 12 June 2026 (offer price $135 per the prospectus). The table is recomputed daily from our price data.

In short

As of 7 October 2026

In an initial public offering (IPO) a company sells shares to the public for the first time. You can subscribe in advance through your broker, but when demand is high you often get few shares or none at all. The first trading price can be well above or below the offer price. Some newcomers grew into giants; many others trade below their offer price years later.

Key facts at a glance

IPO
Initial public offering: the first public sale of a company’s shares
Prospectus
Required before the offer; in Germany BaFin checks completeness and clarity, not whether the content is correct
Price range
Set before the subscription period; top and bottom are often 10 to 15 % apart
Subscription period
Usually a few days to two weeks; a buy order with a limit via your broker
Allocation
When oversubscribed you get part or nothing; unfilled orders lapse
First listing
Usually one or two days after subscription closes; the first price comes from an auction
Lock-up
Existing owners may not sell for a while, often 6 to 12 months; afterwards more shares can hit the market
Spin-off
No sale of new shares: parent shareholders receive them (e.g. Siemens Energy, Daimler Truck)
SpaceX
On Nasdaq since 12 June 2026, ticker SPCX, offer price $135, about $75bn raised
Taxes (Germany)
Like any stock: gains and dividends taxed at the flat rate after the saver’s allowance

What if you had bought at the IPO?

1,000 euros (dollars for US stocks) invested at the close of the listing month and held until today. Price only, without dividends. Tap a stock for the full history.

Typical result (median)
10×
Below the amount invested today
0 of 20 stocks
What if you had bought at the IPO?
CompanyListed since1,000 became
Daimler TruckDec 2021Spin-off€1,268
Siemens EnergySep 2020Spin-off€6,250
Scout24Oct 2015€2,252
ZalandoOct 2014€1,235
VonoviaJul 2013€1,397
MetaMay 2012$24,962
TeslaJun 2010$239,421
BrenntagMar 2010€3,348
VisaMar 2008$23,774
SymriseDec 2006€4,685
MastercardMay 2006$126,187
MTU Aero EnginesJun 2005€14,126
AlphabetAug 2004$135,813
NetflixMay 2002≈ $620K
DHL GroupNov 2000€2,474
InfineonMar 2000€1,201
NvidiaJan 1999≈ $6M
AmazonMay 1997≈ $3.2M
Deutsche TelekomNov 1996€1,589
MicrosoftMar 1986≈ $5.3M

Only stocks that are in the DAX or our US list today. Failed IPOs are missing, so the table looks better than reality (survivorship bias). The buy price is the first monthly close, not the offer price; prices adjusted for splits. Without dividends, costs, taxes and exchange rates; US stocks in dollars. Past performance is not a forecast. ≈: the split-adjusted starting price is below 50 cents and rounded to whole cents in the data, so the result is only rough and can be off by more than 10 %.

Newly listed

SpaceX

First trading day June 12, 2026 on Nasdaq, ticker SPCX. Offer price per the final prospectus: $135.

Last price (October 6, 2026): $171.92, +27.3% versus the offer price.

Not in our stock list and not in the table: a few months of price history say little, and most private investors did not get shares at the offer price. Not a recommendation. Prospectus at the SEC

What happens in an IPO

A company owned so far by founders, staff or investors offers shares to everyone for the first time. It needs a prospectus: a long document on the business, the numbers and the risks. In Germany BaFin approves it. Important: BaFin checks that the prospectus is complete, consistent and understandable. It does not check whether the statements are true or whether the stock is a good deal. The company is liable for that.

Most offers use book building: banks sound out large investors and set a price range. During the subscription period they collect buy orders. Then the offer price is fixed and the stock trades on the exchange for the first time.

How to subscribe from Germany

You need an ordinary brokerage account. During the subscription period you place a buy order with a limit: how many shares you want and the most you will pay per share. For large IPOs, often only the banks in the syndicate offer subscriptions. Deutsche Börse also offers subscription via the Frankfurt venue, which many brokers support.

If the offer is oversubscribed, meaning more people want to buy than there are shares, the shares are allocated. Private investors then often receive only a few or none. You only pay for allocated shares; open orders lapse before trading starts. If you get nothing, you can buy on the exchange from the first trading day, but at the market price, not the offer price.

$135

SpaceX offer price per the prospectus. The current price is shown in the box next to the table above.

The first price is not the offer price

The offer price only applies to allocated shares. The first market price forms freely and can differ a lot. An example from this year: Vincorion was placed at €17.00 in March 2026; the first price in Frankfurt was €19.30. Anyone buying after the start already paid more. It can go the other way too: a stock can drop below its offer price on day one.

Months later there can be another bump. Large shareholders may not sell for a while because of a lock-up. When it ends, many shares can come to market at once. The SpaceX prospectus sets several release dates, the last one after 180 days.

What early buyers of well-known stocks would have seen

The table above covers stocks from our list that went public within our data window: what would 1,000 (in euros or dollars) be worth today if invested at the close of the listing month? We deliberately use the first monthly close, not the offer price, because private investors often could not get the offer price, and our prices are adjusted for stock splits. Dividends and currency moves are not included.

Watch out for survivorship bias: the table only contains companies big enough today for the DAX or our US list. Failed IPOs are missing. Porsche listed in September 2022 at €82.50, Douglas in March 2024 at €26.00. Both traded well below their offer price in October 2026. The table shows what was possible at best, not what happens in a typical IPO.

What to take away

An IPO is not a discount. Sellers and banks set the price so it works for them, and demand is highest when there is a lot of media buzz. A young listed company also has little market history: no price record through bad years, often few published quarterly reports.

If an IPO interests you, read the risk factors in the prospectus, set a limit and invest only a small part of your money. And check whether you already own it: anyone holding a global ETF such as the MSCI World has held a tiny slice of SpaceX since July 2026.

Stay away from offers of "pre-IPO shares" in chat groups or on social media promising the price will explode after listing. Germany’s consumer advice centres explicitly warn about this scam. Real subscriptions go through your own broker.

Frequently asked questions

Is SpaceX already listed?

Yes. SpaceX has been listed on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX since 12 June 2026. The offer price was $135 per share according to the final prospectus filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. We show the current price next to the table; it updates hourly.

Is it worth subscribing to an IPO?

Nobody can tell in advance. Some newcomers grew into giants; many traded below their offer price years later. In popular IPOs private investors often get only a few shares. Whether you understand the company and whether the stock fits your portfolio matters more than the timing.

What does oversubscribed mean?

There were more buy orders than shares on offer. Shares are then allocated, often by lottery or fixed quotas, and many subscribers get fewer than they asked for or none. Oversubscription says nothing about how the price will develop later.

What happens if I get no allocation?

Your order lapses and nothing is charged. You can buy the stock on the exchange from the first trading day, but at the current market price, which can be above or below the offer price.

Why do you show the first monthly close instead of the offer price?

Our price data are monthly closes adjusted for stock splits. Offer prices would have to be adjusted company by company, which is error-prone. Also, many private investors never got shares at the offer price. The first monthly close is a price you really could have bought at.

What is the difference between an IPO and a spin-off?

In an IPO shares are sold to new investors at an offer price. In a spin-off the parent company’s shareholders receive the new shares without anyone subscribing. That is how Siemens Energy (2020) and Daimler Truck (2021) came to market. They are marked in the table.

Can I subscribe to US IPOs like SpaceX from Germany?

Usually not directly. US IPOs are allocated mainly to investors in the US, and German brokers rarely offer subscription. Once trading starts you can buy through your broker if it offers the stock. Then watch currency, trading venue and fees.

Sources

As of 7 October 2026 · Educational content, not investment or tax advice.