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Investing at an all-time high: what DAX and MSCI World history shows

The DAX is 4.5% below its record, and many people ask: should I still buy now? We went through every month since 1987 to see what happened after buying at an all-time high, and after buying at any other time.

Status: Calculated up to Oct 2026: monthly closes, the last value is the price when the data was fetched. Past performance is not a forecast.

In short

As of 7 October 2026

Over ten years, buying at an all-time high was historically no worse than buying in any month. For the DAX, 94.9% of 10-year periods that began at a record ended in profit, versus 93.9% from any month. The risk lies in rare peaks like Feb 2000: a lump sum took 7 years 3 months to get back to even. A monthly plan started there was back in profit after 5 years.

Key facts at a glance

Data
DAX since Dec 1987 (performance index, dividends included), MSCI World since Jan 1985 (price index in US dollars, no dividends); monthly closes from Yahoo Finance
Months at an all-time high
DAX: 98 of 467 months (21.0%); MSCI World: 132 of 502 (26.3%)
DAX: 10 years in profit
from an all-time high 94.9%, from any month 93.9%
MSCI World: 10 years in profit
from an all-time high 87.8%, from any month 93.2%
DAX: typical 10-year return
from an all-time high 7.5% a year, from any month 7.6% a year (median)
Worst DAX entry
Feb 2000: -68.3% by Mar 2003, 7 years 3 months to get back to even
Monthly plan from that peak
back in profit after 5 years
Lump sum or spread over 12 months
for the DAX, the lump sum was ahead after 10 years in 71.2% of start months
Today
DAX 4.5% below its highest monthly close (Aug 2026), MSCI World at a record high

The numbers: buying at an all-time high vs any other month

An all-time high here is a month that closed at least as high as every month before it. For every start month we check where the index stood 1, 5 and 10 years later.

DAX

Performance index, dividends includedDec 1987 to Oct 202698 of 467 months at a record
1 year
Start at an all-time high
68.8% in profit
12.6% a year (median)
worst: -40.4% from Dec 2007 · 93 periods
Start in any month
69.9% in profit
13.4% a year (median)
worst: -55.1% from Mar 2002 · 455 periods
5 years
Start at an all-time high
76.0% in profit
7.3% a year (median)
worst: -52.4% from Mar 1998 · 75 periods
Start in any month
83.3% in profit
8.2% a year (median)
worst: -52.4% from Mar 1998 · 407 periods
10 years
Start at an all-time high
94.9% in profit
7.5% a year (median)
worst: -26.8% from Feb 2000 · 59 periods
Start in any month
93.9% in profit
7.6% a year (median)
worst: -26.8% from Feb 2000 · 347 periods

The worst peaks

All-time highs after which the index fell by at least 30% before setting a new record.

Mar 1990
-32.5% (Sep 1990)
Lump sum back to even
3 years 7 months
Monthly plan from the peak back in profit
1 year 1 month
After 10 years: lump sum / monthly plan: 3.9× / 3.3×
Feb 2000
-68.3% (Mar 2003)
Lump sum back to even
7 years 3 months
Monthly plan from the peak back in profit
5 years
After 10 years: lump sum / monthly plan: 0.7× / 1.1×
Dec 2007
-52.4% (Feb 2009)
Lump sum back to even
5 years 5 months
Monthly plan from the peak back in profit
1 year 9 months
After 10 years: lump sum / monthly plan: 1.6× / 1.7×

MSCI World

Price index in USD, no dividendsJan 1985 to Oct 2026132 of 502 months at a record
1 year
Start at an all-time high
71.8% in profit
10.8% a year (median)
worst: -43.1% from Oct 2007 · 124 periods
Start in any month
73.1% in profit
11.5% a year (median)
worst: -48.4% from Feb 2008 · 490 periods
5 years
Start at an all-time high
75.9% in profit
5.4% a year (median)
worst: -27.8% from Mar 1998 · 108 periods
Start in any month
81.2% in profit
7.3% a year (median)
worst: -29.9% from Feb 2004 · 442 periods
10 years
Start at an all-time high
87.8% in profit
5.8% a year (median)
worst: -32.2% from Mar 1999 · 82 periods
Start in any month
93.2% in profit
6.2% a year (median)
worst: -34.5% from Feb 1999 · 382 periods

The worst peaks

All-time highs after which the index fell by at least 30% before setting a new record.

Mar 2000
-48.0% (Sep 2002)
Lump sum back to even
6 years 7 months
Monthly plan from the peak back in profit
3 years 9 months
After 10 years: lump sum / monthly plan: 0.8× / 1.1×
Oct 2007
-55.4% (Feb 2009)
Lump sum back to even
6 years 6 months
Monthly plan from the peak back in profit
2 years 1 month
After 10 years: lump sum / monthly plan: 1.2× / 1.5×

Bought in Feb 2000: lump sum vs monthly plan

Value per €100 put in, DAX. At €100 you are back to the money paid in.

Monthly planLump sumPaid in
Feb 2000Feb 2010

Source: Yahoo Finance, monthly closes up to Oct 2026 (last value: price when the data was fetched). Excluding costs, taxes and inflation. Past performance is no guarantee.

Records are normal in the stock market

An all-time high only means the price is higher than ever before. When a market rises over decades, that happens all the time. Since Dec 1987, the DAX closed at a record in 98 of 467 months, roughly one month in 5. For the MSCI World it was 132 of 502 months. A record on its own says little about whether the next crash is near. The feeling of "too expensive" mostly comes from remembering the old, lower price.

94.9%

of 10-year DAX periods that began at an all-time high ended in profit. From any month it was 93.9%.

How we calculated

We take monthly closes and mark every month that closed at least as high as all months before it. For each of those months we check where the index stood 1, 5 and 10 years later. We do the same for every month as a comparison. Important: the DAX is a performance index, so dividends are included. The MSCI World here is the price index in US dollars without dividends, because that is the longest freely available series. Its figures are therefore too low, and euro investors also face currency swings. Costs, taxes and inflation are not included.

In the short run, anything can happen

After one year, DAX entries at an all-time high were in profit 68.8% of the time, entries in any month 69.9%. The worst one-year period from a high began in Dec 2007 and returned -40.4%. After five years it was 76.0% versus 83.3%, after ten years 94.9% versus 93.9%. The table above shows all values, including the MSCI World.

The worst case: buying right before a crash

Some highs were followed by long declines. For the DAX, the index fell by at least 30% after these records:

Peak in Mar 1990: -32.5% by Sep 1990. Lump sum back to even: 3 years 7 months. Monthly plan from the peak back in profit: 1 year 1 month.

Peak in Feb 2000: -68.3% by Mar 2003. Lump sum back to even: 7 years 3 months. Monthly plan from the peak back in profit: 5 years.

Peak in Dec 2007: -52.4% by Feb 2009. Lump sum back to even: 5 years 5 months. Monthly plan from the peak back in profit: 1 year 9 months.

The monthly plan recovers faster because it buys many cheap units near the bottom. Anyone who invested everything at the peak needed strong nerves.

Lump sum or spread over 12 months? For the DAX, the lump sum was ahead after 10 years in 71.2% of all start months, and in 74.6% of starts at an all-time high. Vanguard found about two thirds in 2012 for the US, UK and Australia. Spreading usually costs some return but protects against the bad luck of poor timing.

What you can take from this

Nobody knows whether a high will be followed by another high or a crash. The figures only show that waiting for a "better" moment was not a reliable advantage in the past. More important than the day you start are three questions: do you have an emergency fund, so you never have to sell at the bottom? Can you leave the money invested for at least ten years? And can you live with your portfolio being clearly in the red for a while? If fear of bad timing stops you, a monthly plan can help because it spreads the decision over many months. This is not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

Should I wait until prices fall again?

Nobody can answer that reliably. Historically, buying the DAX at an all-time high was no worse after ten years than buying in any month. Waiting may mean missing further records.

How often was the DAX at an all-time high?

In 98 of 467 months since Dec 1987, based on monthly closes. That is roughly one month in 5.

What was the worst time to buy?

For the DAX, the peak in Feb 2000. The index then fell 68.3% by Mar 2003. A lump sum took 7 years 3 months to get back to even, a monthly plan 5 years to get into profit.

Is a monthly plan better than a lump sum at an all-time high?

Usually the lump sum earns more because the money works for longer. A monthly plan spreads the risk of poor timing and gets back into profit faster after a crash. Which suits you better depends on your nerves.

Why is the DAX a performance index?

For the DAX, company dividends are treated as reinvested. Many other indices, such as the standard MSCI World, only show price changes. A DAX level is therefore not directly comparable with a price index.

Does this apply to single stocks too?

No. Broad indices recover because weak companies are replaced and strong ones grow. A single stock can stay below its peak forever or disappear entirely.

Sources

As of 7 October 2026 · Educational content, not investment or tax advice.